GlobalData has found that 46% of industry experts believe that healthcare costs would be lowered if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November and the Democrats have control of Congress.

The company ran a one-month survey starting on 28 September 2020, with the question, “Which election outcome do you think will lead to a lowering of healthcare costs?” Participants were asked about scenarios that include the president being from the same part as the majority in Congress, the president being from a party different than the majority in Congress, or if no outcome will lead to lower healthcare costs.

GlobalData received 313 responses to the survey. While results showed that industry experts are split between what election outcome they believe will result in lower healthcare costs, it was clear that most people (46%) think that healthcare costs will be lowered if Joe Biden wins the presidential election and the Democrats have control of Congress. Joe Biden is a supporter of the Affordable Care Act, which was enacted in 2010 while he was Vice President. Furthermore, Biden has expressed his desire to offer a public health plan in addition to private healthcare options. In addition, Biden would likely create tax credits to put towards lowering healthcare premiums and eliminate hidden healthcare costs. Biden will also likely put pressure on pharmaceutical companies to curb price increases by making them negotiate with Medicare. Overall, Biden has expressed his desire to make healthcare affordable to more Americans and increase access.

Just over half as many participants (26%) feel that healthcare costs will be lowered if Donald Trump wins re-election and the Republicans maintain control of Congress. A similar number of industry experts (25%) think that no outcome will lower healthcare costs. It is less clear how healthcare costs would change if Donald Trump remains president. His campaign has been relatively vague about his plans to reduce healthcare costs. However, he has expressed his desire to lower the cost of drugs, reduce regulations, and increase competition of private healthcare providers. In addition, the Republican Party will likely prevent insurance companies from dropping clients should they develop illnesses. However, Donald Trump has been clear about removing the health benefits provided by the Affordable Care Act in favour of state-level programs to reduce healthcare costs.

Only 3% of respondents were optimistic about the prospect of lower healthcare costs if either Joe Biden wins the presidency with a Republican Congress or Donald Trump wins with a Democratic Congress. History has demonstrated the limited abilities of past presidents to accomplish their goals while the opposite party controls Congress. An added layer of complexity is whether or not the elected Senate is of the same party as the president.

The results of the study can be found below.

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Which election outcome do you think will lead to a lowering of healthcare costs?