Scientists from the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London, UK, have developed an algorithm that can predict whether individuals with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) will develop bowel cancer within five years with an accuracy of more than 90%.

Funded by Cancer Research UK and the Barts Charity, this breakthrough offers a potential new approach to bowel cancer testing in hospitals.

The algorithm calculates the risk of future bowel cancer based on the specific pattern of DNA alterations in the pre-cancerous cells.

The test would involve genomic sequencing of pre-cancerous growth samples obtained during endoscopy.

This sequencing data will be fed into the algorithm, which also considers factors such as growth size, ease of biopsy removal, and overall gut inflammation to calculate cancer risk.

In a study involving 122 IBD subjects, researchers observed that half of them developed bowel cancer five years after their pre-cancerous cell samples were taken.

DNA scanning of these samples revealed that those who developed cancer had multiple DNA copy losses. This finding was pivotal in creating the risk assessment algorithm.

Looking ahead, scientists aim to evolve the test from analysing gut growth samples to a less invasive method such as blood tests.

With types that include ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, IBD can cause pre-cancerous cells if the bowel lining remains inflamed and untreated.

ICR London Centre for Evolution and Cancer director and genomics and evolution professor Trevor Graham said: “Crohn’s and ulcerative colitis are common and we need better tools to identify the patients at highest risk of bowel cancer. Our test and algorithm give people with IBD, and the doctors who care for them, the best possible information so that they can make the right decision about how to manage their cancer risk.

“We can accurately identify those people at high risk whilst putting the minds of many others at rest.”

In October 2024, ICR scientists launched a study to assess PRODICT, a saliva-based test for faster prostate cancer diagnosis.